Taiwanese monsters’ mash

Taiwanese monsters’ mash

Taiwanese politics two months before the November 24, 2018, nine-in-one local elections will be a Taiwanese monsters’ mash.

Recent comments accuse the Tsai Ing-wen government as showing and implementing “fake concern, true bullying” 假關心,真霸凌,  and Taiwan’s trade unions are zombie workers’ unions” 僵屍工會.

The monsters and the ghouls of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have all come out to wage their election fight on November 24, 2018, an election in which the DPP candidates are facing defeat in Taipei, Taichung, Tainan and Kaohsiung, with only Taoyuan still seem secure to remain DPP.

Tsai Ing-wen’s DPP government is now seen as a government run by liars, monsters and ghouls of evil doers.

Agreement with Tsai Ing-wen’s leadership in September 2018 is at 31% and disagreement with Tsai Ing-wen’s leadership in September 2018 is at 55%, with 7.1% strongly support her and 23% strongly disagree with her leadership.

This survey of 1,075 was conducted on September 9-12, 2018.

Among those 45-54 years old. 62.8% are dissatisfied with Tsai Ing-wen, and among those 20-24 years old, 60.4% are dissatisfied with her.  Among politically neutral voters,  56% disapprove of her leadership, and in the so-called Green base of supporters in Yunlin, Chiayi and Nantou of the Democratic Progressive Party, disapproval of her is at 48.7% with 35.8% approval; in Kaohsiung, Pingtung and Penghu, 55% disapprove of her and 34% approve of her; and in Taipei City, 57.4% disapprove of her and 33% approve of her.

Among men, 34.1% support Tsai Ing-wen while 54.2% do not support her, and among women, 28.4% support Tsai Ing-wen while 54.5% do not support her.  Among farmers, 50.4% do not support her while 26.5% still support her.

 

 

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Wavering voters will decide Taiwanese elections

Wavering voters will decide Taiwanese elections

An insight into who will decide Taiwan’s November 24, 2018, nine-in-one local elections is provided by a United Daily News survey of Taichung voters showing Kuomintang’s female mayoral candidate 盧秀燕 Lu Hsiu-yen has 34% support and incumbent mayor 林佳龍 Lin Chia-lung has 33% support, with 47% of Taichung voters indicating interest in the election, 44% disinterested.

In May, the United Daily News survey showed 39% support for Lu Hsiu-yen and 32% support for Lin Chia-lung.

There are now 37% who look favorably at Lin Chia-lung to win and 21% at Lu Hsiu-yen to win but 42% are taking a wait and see attitude.

However, 42% of Taichung voters have not decided whom to support.  Among the politically neutral voters,  37% predict Lin Chia-lung will win a second term while 21% think Kuomintang’s female candidate Lu Hsiu-yen will win, but 42% still cannot decide.

It is predicted that the voter turnout will be 72%, 12% will definitely not vote, 15% say “let’s see”.

Among those who will vote, 42% support Kuomintang’s female candidate Lu Hsiu-yen and 36% support Democratic Progressive Party’s incumbent mayoral candidate Lin Chia-lung.

The numbers show that the undecided, the wait and seers outnumber individual supporters for both the candidates.

Taiwanese election 2018 will definitely be decided by these wavering voters.

The “opposing vote association” 負數票協會 commissioned a survey that showed 28.6% of Taichung voters support Kuomintang’s mayoral candidate 盧秀燕 Lu Hsiu-yen and 26.8% support incumbent mayoral candidate 林佳龍 Lin Chia-lung and 2.3% support independent 宋原通 Sung Yuan-tung.  But 9.6% say they will not vote on November 24, 2018, and 32.8% remain undecided.  Only 57.7% say they will vote.

If Taichung voters are able to cast an opposition vote, support for Lu Hsiu-yen is 22.0%, opposition to Lu Hsiu-yen is 3.2%, with a net support of (22.0% – 3.2% =) 18.8%.

Support for Lin Chia-lung is at 23.2%, opposition to Lin Chia-lung is at 7.6%, and the net support for him is (23.2% – 7.6% =) 15.6%.

Opposition to Lin Chia-lung over opposition to Lu Hsiu-yen or 7.6/3.2 = 2.375 multiples.

Taichung has 2,219,925 voters.  Allowing voters to cast an opposition vote will increased voter turnout by 2.2%, according to the association’s estimate, an increase of 48,838 voters who would most definitely be neutral voters who have not yet indicated their preferences.

The “Democratic Progressive Party frightens people” 民進黨讓人心恐懼 and there is a call to “cast invalid ballots” (投廢票啦), and “there are two cups of poisoned wine on the table for you to choose,  what you should do is to topple the table!”  (投廢票啦,桌上两杯毒酒讓你選一杯喝,你應該做的是 翻桌!)

The most recent TVBS survey conducted on August 31 to September 14, 2018, shows support for Kuomintang’s mayoral candidate for New Taipei City Hou You-yi is 48% and support for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Su Chen-chang is 32%.

Apple Daily News survey of 1,068 responses conducted on September 13-14, 2018, shows support for Hou You-yi at 40.2%, Su Chen-chang at 29.4% with 30.4% expressing no preference.  Support for the Kuomintang is at 22.8% and support for the DPP is at 21.7%.  Among the 27.8% neutral voters, 20.7% expressed no preference for any candidate nor any political party.

A United Daily poll of 1,068 responses conducted on September 14-17, 2018, shows Hou You-yi has 48% support while Su Chen-chang has 24% support with 28% who gave no response.  Among New Taipei city voters, 45% are unconcerned about the local election while 49% are concerned.

In Taichung, incumbent DPP mayor Lin Chia-lung has 35% support and Komintang’s female mayoral candidate Lu Hsiu-yen has 38% support.  There are 37.7% who have not decided.

In Kaohsiung, Kuomintang’s mayoral candidate Ha Guo-yu has 35% support and DPP’s candidate Chen Chi-man has 39% support.

Kaohsiung has a serious debt problem left by the fat rotund former female mayor Chen Chu and her city administration.  The nine-in-one elections on November 24, 2018, is 65 days away.  Apple Daily News asked 1,073 Kaohsiung citizens on September 16, 2018, some questions about the city’s high debt:  57% think the city’s debt is serious, 35.8% say it is very serious, 21.2% say it is somewhat serious, 11.6% say it is not serious, 1.0% say it is absolutely not serious, and 10.6% say it is not too serious and 31.4% gave no response.

When asked whom do you think has the ability to solve Kaohsiung’s debt problem:  27.2% say they believe Kuomintang candidate Han Gou-yu has, 24.7% say the Democratic Progressive Party’ candidate Chen Chi-man has, while 48.1% gave no response.

In Taipei, incumbent mayor Ko Wen-je as 37% support, Kuomintang’s mayoral candidate Ding Shou-chung has 32% support, and DPP’s You Wen-chi has 11% support.

In Taoyuan, incumbent Cheng We-tsan has 54% support and Kuomintang’s candidate Chen Hsieh-shen has 17% support.

In Tainan, DPP’s Huang Wei-che has 33% support and Kuomintang’s Gao Ssu-bo has 14% support.

It appears that only Tainan and Taoyuan may remain “Green” with possible DPP candidates winning.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Taiwan gives Russians 14-day visa waiver for one year

Taiwan gives Russians 14-day visa waiver for one year

Taiwan’s foreign ministry is giving Russians a 14-day visa waiver privilege starting on September 5, 2018, for one year until July 31, 2019.

About 10,000 Russians visit Taiwan, and 30% of them come to Taiwan on business, and they stay an average of one to two weeks.

This visa waiver to Russians is similar to other unilateral and nonreciprocal visa waiver privileges offered to many other countries by Taiwan.

Of 18 South Asian and Southeast Asian nations, Taiwan provides visa waiver service to 7 of them and does not offer visa waiver service to citizens of 11 of them.

A Yahoo survey of 6,200 responses conducted on August 31 to September 3, 2018, asked which of these 11 countries not yet offered visa waiver privilege by Taiwan do you think should be given unilateral nonreciprocal visa waiver to encourage international tourism?  11.7% say unilateral visa waiver should be given to citizens of Indonesia, 12.9% say Vietnam, 5.9% say Myanmar (Burma), 5.5% say Cambodia, 4.5% say Laos, 10.4% say India, 3.7% say Pakistan, 3.8% say Bangladesh, 8.0% say Nepal, 6.6% say Sri Lanka, 11.9% say Bhutan, 70.4% say none, and 5.1% do not know.

Taiwan currently offers unilateral and nonreciprocal visa waiver service to citizens of 7 Southeast Asian countries.  The survey asked which country do you think should not be given its citizens unilateral nonreciprocal visa waiver privilege?  67.0% say the Philippines, 76.3% say Thailand, 33.0% say Malaysia, 10.6% say Singapore, 20.3% say Brunei, 14.2% say Australia, 12.2% say New Zealand, 8.8% say they should all be given unilateral  un-reciprocated visa waiver privilege, 7.3% do not know.  This survey included 78.3% men and 21.7% women.

Separately, a survey of 9,100 responses on August 29 to September 1, 2018, asked:  Do you think reciprocity of visa waiver privilege is absolutely necessary?  75.4% say absolutely necessary, 18.8% say there should be reciprocity, 2.9% say reciprocity should not be necessary, 1.9% say it is definitely not necessary, and 1.0% do not know.  This survey was conducted to find out the reaction of the Taiwanese people about Thailand’s proposed hike in visa fees for Taiwanese travelers.  This survey consisted of 74.7% men and 25.3% women.

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Conjecture: PLA ready to invade Taiwan before 2020?

Conjecture:  PLA ready to invade Taiwan before 2020?

On August 31, 2018, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) made public its 2018 Chinese Communist Military Strength Assessment Report.  It says that the Chinese Military plans to complete preparations for an all out military invasion of Taiwan by 2020, including an all around military blockade and joint forces landing on Taiwan.

Conjecture

The report by the MND itself is conjecture!

The Chinese Communist military has said it will not be ready for a full scale all out invasion of Taiwan before at least 2025, before the launching of its second aircraft carrier.

What if the Chinese Communist military readiness for an all out invasion of Taiwan is completed by 2020?

There is one possibility that Taiwan will be invaded militarily by 2020.  It will depend on the result of the public referendum on Taiwan independence to be held on April 6, 2019.

If it does not pass, there will not be a political crisis on Taiwan to trigger an immediate military invasion by Chinese mainland military forces.

If it passes, ensuing political upheaval on Taiwan will encourage the Chinese mainland military hawks to become impatient and will encourage them to view the moment as the ideal opportunity for a strong military invasion of Taiwan since the passage means the political movement towards de jure independence will be unstoppable.

Conjecture

On April 6, 2019, the Taiwan independence referendum passes.  The Chinese mainland military hawks become impatient.  A military invasion is launched on April 7, 2019.

In numerology, the numbers of the date of the referendum are April 6, 2019, or 4,6,2,0,1,9.  We find the disaster indicators 11 (2+9, 4+6+1), 9, and 4.  The numbers 4+6+2+1=13, 1+3=4, and 4+6+2+0+1+9=22, and 2+2=4.  This date spells disaster.

Ironically, April 7, 2019, our conjectural date for a massive military invasion of Taiwan, contains the numbers 4,7,2,0,1,9, with the disaster indicators 4,9 and (2+9, 4+7)=11 present.  They also add up to 4+7+2+0+1+9=23, and 2+3=5, signifying a “void”.

Could this “void” mean calm before the storm?

Or does it mean “unpredictability”?

Void also insinuates complete devastation, complete elimination, and complete destruction, and nothing left after disaster.

Two war conjectures

There are at least two war conjectures about how the PLA, the People’s Liberation Army will launch its military attack on Taiwan.

There are two scenarios:  (1)   A massive air cushion pontoon landing craft assault on Taiwan’s Tamshui River, a Normandy style landing at the mouth of the Tamshui River.  Each air cushion pontoon landing craft can travel at 115 kilometers per hour on the high seas and each can carry up to 500 soldiers.  It can traverse the Taiwan Strait in less than 2 hours.  (2)  A massive aerial assault by helicopter gunships followed by ground troops delivered by troop transport helicopters and supply helicopters.

Taiwan’s MND envisions the deployment of short range mobile missiles and mobile rockets to block all crafts, by air or by sea, from landing on the beach head.

[Master Chen says]

I have a really dumb and obviously stupid question that these so-called military experts have failed to mention and presume.   Won’t the Chinese mainland PLA launch a first strike with multiple medium range missile and short range rocket attacks before risking any soldier’s life by sending him onto an assault air cushion pontoon landing craft or a helicopter gunship?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Taiwan’s “middle voters” arise!

Taiwan’s “middle voters” arise!

The Taiwan Index Public Opinion surveyed 1,098 responses on August 1-10, 2018.  It showed that 45.4% say they are politically neutral “middle voters” 中間選民。

In general, 45.4% say they are politically neutral voters with 3.1% having no opinion.  Among those 30-39 years old, 50.2% claim to be politically neutral voters.

Age wise, 49.6% of those 20-29 years old claim to be politically neutral with 4.7% having no opinion; 50.2% of those 30-39 years old claim to be politically neutral with 1.9% having no opinion; 46.0% of those 40-49 years old claim to be politically neutral with 3.2% having no opinion; 44.1% of those 50-59 years old claim to be politically neutral with 3.0% having no opinion; and 37.0% of those 60-69 years old claim to be politically neutral with 0.9% having no opinion.

Among the six known political figures who may be aiming at the 2020 presidential election, incumbent mayor Ko Wen-je has 32% support who see him as winning the 2020 presidential election, but there are 47.4% who are opposed to him running in 2020.  Among politically neutral voters, 34.1% support him, 26.1% Pan Blue voters support him, and 33.4% Pan Green voters support him.

Among those 20-29 years old, 62.9% will vote for him.  Among those 30-39 years old, 51.1% will vote for him, and among those 50 years old and older, 10% will vote for him.

If Tsai Ing-wen were to run as presidential candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party again in 2020, 20.7% will support her.  Among those 20-59 years old, 20% will support her, but among those 20-29 years old, 14.9% will vote for her, and among those 40-49 years old, 14.3% will vote for her.

If Lai Ching-de runs in 2020 as presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, 27.6% woould support him, and among those 20-29 years old, 20.5% would support him but 63.5% would not support him.

This means that Ko Wen-je has risen up from the Blue-Green political trap.

Support for Lai Ching-de is 27.6% for a 2020 run as presidential candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, 24.4% support for Eric Chu of the Kuomintang and incumbent mayor of New Taipei City for a 2020 run as Kuomintang’s presidential candidate, 21.2% support for former president Ma Ying-jeou to run in 2020 as presidential candidate of the Kuomintang, 20.7% support for Tsai Ing-wen to run in 2020 as the presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, and 11.1% support for current Kuomintang chairman Wu Dun-yi as presidential candidate in 2020.

In the run for Hsinchu county governor, Min Kuo Tang’s 民國黨 的 徐欣瑩 Hsu Hsin-yin leads with 20.4% support, Kuomintang’s candidate has 16.9% support, independent Pan Blue candidate has 14.1%, DPP candidate has 6.2% support, and 31.1% have no opinion.  Among the Hsinchu county voters, 37.2% support the Kuomintang, 10.7% support the Democratic Progressive Party, and 38% are political party neutral.

Again, is this trend just a pendulum effect or is it a true political awakening from Taiwan’s nightmare of political party politics of constant infighting and political vendetta?

With mama’s campaign help, the “Ko Wen-je effect” has now spread to locations outside of Taipei,  where he is seeking reelection on November 24, 2018, in the local nine-in-one elections.  The independent mayoral candidate, incumbent mayor Ko Wen-je, and his White Power are now strong enough to defeat both his Kuomintang’s (KMT) and his Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) opponents Ding Shou-chung (KMT) and  Yao Wen-chi (DPP).

On August 22, 2018, independent female candidate for Changhua county governor Hwang Wen-ling staged a rally in front of the Changhua Railway Station to call on those supporting Ko Wen-je to form a candidates’ white power alliance.  The incumbent mayor Ko Wen-je’s mother is openly supporting the independent female candidate for Changhua county governor.

According to the most recent Beautiful Island electronic news survey, trust in Tsai Ing-wen is at 28.7% and distrust of her is at 52.4%, and satisfaction with her performance is at 23.5% and dissatisfaction of her is at 62.6%.

Among those 20-29 years old, distrust of Tsai Ing-wen is at 62.8% and trust in her is at 18.6%, satisfaction with her performance is at 14.4% and dissatisfaction of her is at 74.4%.  The young Taiwanese 20-29 years old are disappointed and disillusioned with the Democratic Progressive Party.

In general, 26.7% support Ko Wen-jen in forming a White Power political party, 43.6% do not support it, 29.7% gave no response.  Among those 20-29 years old, 35.8% support Ko Wen-je to form a new political party.

Registration of candidates for the November 24, 2018, nine-in-one local elections began on August 28, 2018.  A forecast of votes for the Kuomintang candidates, the Democratic Progressive Party candidates, the politically neutral candidates, and other small political parties shows the politically neutral candidates may get 42% of votes, the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party candidates may each get 24.5% of the votes, the New Power Party may get 5% of the votes and other small political parties may get 4% of the votes.

The August 22-24, 2018, survey by the Beautiful Island Electronic News shows that public trust in Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is at 30.2%, trust in Lai Ching-de of the DPP is at 41.6%, trust in Kuomintang’s Eric Chu is at 43.2%, and trust in independent Ko Wen-je is at 56.6%.

Survey by Taiwan’s Liberty Times conducted on August 29-31, 2018, of 1,070 responses shows that incumbent major Ko Wen-je has 33.43% support, Kuomintang’s mayoral candidate Ding Shou-chung has 24.71% support, mayoral candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party Yao Wen-chi has 14.9% support, and independent mayoral candidate Li Hsi-kun has 2.35% support.  There are 24.61% who have no opinion.

Ko Wen-je is favored to win the November 24, 2018, nine-in-one election for a second term by 55.59% and Kuomintang’s mayoral candidate Ding Shou-chung is favored to win by 11.08%.  The other two candidates are favored to win by less than 10%. There are 27.06% who have no opinion as to whom is favored to win.  Among those 20-29 years old, Ko Wen-je has 67.44% support.

 

 

 

 

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Why Kaohsiung needs change

Why Kaohsiung needs change

According to Taiwan’s Apple News, the population of the city of Kaohsiung in July 2018 was 2,773,506 residents, an increase of 73 residents from 2011.

Kaohsiung which used to be the second largest city in Taiwan, is now third. Taichung has surpassed Kaohsiung with a population of 2,796,081 in July 2018, with 22,575 more residents than Kaohsiung.

Kaohsiung has remained stagnant economically for 7 years.  The Democratic Progressive Party has been the ruling party in the Kaohsiung city government for 20 years since 1998.  It is time to change, and 44.3% Kaohsiung residents want change in political party in the Kaohsiung city government, 38.9% disagree, 16.9% have no opinion, 48.5% of Kaohsiung residents say it is difficult to find a job in Kaohsiung, and 44.3% believe if the Democratic Progressive Party continues to be in Kaohsiung city government, Kaohsiung’s economy will not be able to improve.

In Kaohsiung, the Democratic Progressive Party has 24.3% support, the Kuomintang has 19.3% support, and the New Power Party has 9.6% support, with 43.2% who claim to be politically neutral, and 50.6% are dissatisfied with Tsai Ing-wen and 36.4% are satisfied with her performance.  Kuomintang’s mayoral candidate in Kaohsiung Han Guo-yu has 31% support while his Democratic Progressive Party’s opponent has 33.6% support with 35.4% of Kaohsiung citizens having no opinion.  These results come from a local Kaohsiung poll of 1,089 Kaohsiung residents on August 15-17, 2018.

In Taichung, ETtoday surveyed 1,607 responses on July 30 to Agust 5, 2018.  It showed that Kuomintang’s female mayoral candidate 盧秀燕 Lu Hsiu-yen has 35.6% support and incumbent mayor Lin Chia-lung has 31.0% support, with 9.8% not supporting any of the two and 23.7% have no opinion.

A TVBS July 2018 poll showed 盧秀燕 Lu Hsiu-yen with 39% support and Lin Chia-lung with 33% support.

These poll results illustrate what is being described by Taiwanese political pundits as 淺碟文化 shallow plate or shallow platter culture, 淺碟政治 shallow plate or shallow platter politics, 淺碟經濟 shallow plate or shallow platter economy, and Taipei’s incumbent mayor Ko Wen-je says Taipei’s political scene is driven by internet sensationalism he calls 海啸政治 “tsunami politics”.

To many people, Taiwan’s politics of the Democratic Progressive Party and of Tsai Ing-wen is like 盲人骑瞎馬, 夜半臨深淵。

A blind man rides a blind horse and comes to the edge of a deep gorge in the middle of the night.

The Tsai Ing-wen government is impoverishing Taiwan with its nuclear free homeland by 2025 and is selling out Taiwan.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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KMT at par with DPP

KMT at par with DPP

According to the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation poll results made public on August 20, 2018, the Blue camp of pro-Kuomintang supporters and the Green camp of pro-Democratic Progressive Party supporters are now at par, each accounting for 24.5% of the voting population, with 46.9% of them claiming political neutrality.

Currently, dissatisfaction with Tsai Ing-wen is at 49.9% and satisfaction with her is at 33.3%, according to this pro-Green biased poll.

A third party poll made public on August 16, 2018, shows dissatisfaction with Tsai Ing-wen at 53.6% and satisfaction with her at 27.4%, with 27.6% very dissatisfied with her and 19% with no opinion.

Dissatisfaction with Tsai Ing-wen among those 40-49 years old is at 63.3%.

While the Kuomintang has caught up with the Democratic Progressive Party in popular support to 24.5% to 24.5%, the politically neutral incumbent Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je seeking reelection has done what nobody could have done.  On August 19, 2018, the Kuomintang tried an all-day event to collect political contributions.  The event received a total of NT$3,310,000.  Mayor Ko Wen-je went online to solicit small donations from the internet public.  In 9 hours, his site received donations of NT$40,931,360, 12.3659698 times the amount donated to the Kuomintang during its full-day event.

This indicates that political donors are now shifting towards support for independent candidates rather than those with a heavy political party burden.

And hopefully, this is also an indication that a politically colorless awakening is truly happening, regardless of the recently launched Colorless Awakening campaign by Taiwan’s CTI TV.

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