Taiwan’s “middle voters” arise!
The Taiwan Index Public Opinion surveyed 1,098 responses on August 1-10, 2018. It showed that 45.4% say they are politically neutral “middle voters” 中間選民。
In general, 45.4% say they are politically neutral voters with 3.1% having no opinion. Among those 30-39 years old, 50.2% claim to be politically neutral voters.
Age wise, 49.6% of those 20-29 years old claim to be politically neutral with 4.7% having no opinion; 50.2% of those 30-39 years old claim to be politically neutral with 1.9% having no opinion; 46.0% of those 40-49 years old claim to be politically neutral with 3.2% having no opinion; 44.1% of those 50-59 years old claim to be politically neutral with 3.0% having no opinion; and 37.0% of those 60-69 years old claim to be politically neutral with 0.9% having no opinion.
Among the six known political figures who may be aiming at the 2020 presidential election, incumbent mayor Ko Wen-je has 32% support who see him as winning the 2020 presidential election, but there are 47.4% who are opposed to him running in 2020. Among politically neutral voters, 34.1% support him, 26.1% Pan Blue voters support him, and 33.4% Pan Green voters support him.
Among those 20-29 years old, 62.9% will vote for him. Among those 30-39 years old, 51.1% will vote for him, and among those 50 years old and older, 10% will vote for him.
If Tsai Ing-wen were to run as presidential candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party again in 2020, 20.7% will support her. Among those 20-59 years old, 20% will support her, but among those 20-29 years old, 14.9% will vote for her, and among those 40-49 years old, 14.3% will vote for her.
If Lai Ching-de runs in 2020 as presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, 27.6% woould support him, and among those 20-29 years old, 20.5% would support him but 63.5% would not support him.
This means that Ko Wen-je has risen up from the Blue-Green political trap.
Support for Lai Ching-de is 27.6% for a 2020 run as presidential candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party, 24.4% support for Eric Chu of the Kuomintang and incumbent mayor of New Taipei City for a 2020 run as Kuomintang’s presidential candidate, 21.2% support for former president Ma Ying-jeou to run in 2020 as presidential candidate of the Kuomintang, 20.7% support for Tsai Ing-wen to run in 2020 as the presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, and 11.1% support for current Kuomintang chairman Wu Dun-yi as presidential candidate in 2020.
In the run for Hsinchu county governor, Min Kuo Tang’s 民國黨 的 徐欣瑩 Hsu Hsin-yin leads with 20.4% support, Kuomintang’s candidate has 16.9% support, independent Pan Blue candidate has 14.1%, DPP candidate has 6.2% support, and 31.1% have no opinion. Among the Hsinchu county voters, 37.2% support the Kuomintang, 10.7% support the Democratic Progressive Party, and 38% are political party neutral.
Again, is this trend just a pendulum effect or is it a true political awakening from Taiwan’s nightmare of political party politics of constant infighting and political vendetta?
With mama’s campaign help, the “Ko Wen-je effect” has now spread to locations outside of Taipei, where he is seeking reelection on November 24, 2018, in the local nine-in-one elections. The independent mayoral candidate, incumbent mayor Ko Wen-je, and his White Power are now strong enough to defeat both his Kuomintang’s (KMT) and his Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) opponents Ding Shou-chung (KMT) and Yao Wen-chi (DPP).
On August 22, 2018, independent female candidate for Changhua county governor Hwang Wen-ling staged a rally in front of the Changhua Railway Station to call on those supporting Ko Wen-je to form a candidates’ white power alliance. The incumbent mayor Ko Wen-je’s mother is openly supporting the independent female candidate for Changhua county governor.
According to the most recent Beautiful Island electronic news survey, trust in Tsai Ing-wen is at 28.7% and distrust of her is at 52.4%, and satisfaction with her performance is at 23.5% and dissatisfaction of her is at 62.6%.
Among those 20-29 years old, distrust of Tsai Ing-wen is at 62.8% and trust in her is at 18.6%, satisfaction with her performance is at 14.4% and dissatisfaction of her is at 74.4%. The young Taiwanese 20-29 years old are disappointed and disillusioned with the Democratic Progressive Party.
In general, 26.7% support Ko Wen-jen in forming a White Power political party, 43.6% do not support it, 29.7% gave no response. Among those 20-29 years old, 35.8% support Ko Wen-je to form a new political party.
Registration of candidates for the November 24, 2018, nine-in-one local elections began on August 28, 2018. A forecast of votes for the Kuomintang candidates, the Democratic Progressive Party candidates, the politically neutral candidates, and other small political parties shows the politically neutral candidates may get 42% of votes, the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party candidates may each get 24.5% of the votes, the New Power Party may get 5% of the votes and other small political parties may get 4% of the votes.
The August 22-24, 2018, survey by the Beautiful Island Electronic News shows that public trust in Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is at 30.2%, trust in Lai Ching-de of the DPP is at 41.6%, trust in Kuomintang’s Eric Chu is at 43.2%, and trust in independent Ko Wen-je is at 56.6%.
Survey by Taiwan’s Liberty Times conducted on August 29-31, 2018, of 1,070 responses shows that incumbent major Ko Wen-je has 33.43% support, Kuomintang’s mayoral candidate Ding Shou-chung has 24.71% support, mayoral candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party Yao Wen-chi has 14.9% support, and independent mayoral candidate Li Hsi-kun has 2.35% support. There are 24.61% who have no opinion.
Ko Wen-je is favored to win the November 24, 2018, nine-in-one election for a second term by 55.59% and Kuomintang’s mayoral candidate Ding Shou-chung is favored to win by 11.08%. The other two candidates are favored to win by less than 10%. There are 27.06% who have no opinion as to whom is favored to win. Among those 20-29 years old, Ko Wen-je has 67.44% support.