China’s ambitions according to a former Japanese commander
According to a former commander of Japan’s Self Defense Forces, the Chinese Communist regime on the Chinese mainland plans to invade Taiwan by military force before 2025 and take Okinawa by military force in 2045.
The Chinese will implement a no fly zone over Taiwan and blockade Taiwan’s shipping lanes in and out of Taiwan’s seaports.
Contrary opinion says that China will exercise economic means to pressure the Taiwanese government and the Taiwanese people instead of actually launching a military invasion.
Wu Dun-yi, 吳敦義， chairman of the Kuomintang, is proposing to sign a “peace agreement” with the Chinese Communist regime, a proposal presented two years ago by former Kuomintang chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu 洪秀柱.
Any progress towards this end will delay the possibility of a planned military invasion of Taiwan before 2025 and a possible invasion of Okinawa in 2045.
The Japanese conjecture would be determined by the political events in 2019 and 2020 now that Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 has formerly announced her intention to run for reelection. The Japanese conjecture would be possible if Tsai Ing-wen is reelected and serves till 2024 and her Democratic Progressive Party is likely to remain in government with a strong candidacy by Lai Ching-de 賴清德.
The Japanese conjecture would be rendered impossible if the Kuomintang wins the January 2020 presidential and legislative election and governs till 2024, and the Kuomintang president elected in January 2020 seeks reelection in 2024.
This scenario is very likely if the Kuomintang can decide on a viable candidate against Tsai Ing-wen in 2020.
According to the latest Apple Daily survey of 1,087 responses conducted on February 15-16, 2019, if Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 runs for president in 2020, he is expected to be the strongest candidate and the most likely to win against all possible candidates fielded by either the Kuomintang or the Democratic Progressive Party.
Eric Chu of the Kuomintang now loses in popularity rating to Ko Wen-je. Now that Tsai Ing-wen has formerly announced her intention to run for reelection in 2020, Ko Wen-je will easily win since her popularity rating of 23.6% ranks third after Ko Wen-je’s 32.4% and Eric Chu’s 31.8%. If Ko Wen-je does not run for president in 2020, Eric Chu of the Kuomintang is favored 50.2% to win against Tsai Ing-wen’s 33.6%.
The other still relatively unlikely scenario now popular is to draft newly elected Kaohsiung mayor Han Guo-yu 韓國瑜 as Kuomintang’s candidate for president in 2020. Han became mayor of Kaohsiung on December 25, 2018. Han Guo-yu is the only political figure with a popularity rating higher than that of Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 and is seen to be the only political figure popular enough to win in an election against Ko Wen-je.
According to Apple Daily News, if Han Guo-yu is drafted to run as Kuomintang’s candidate for president in 2020, Han will get 35.1% support against Ko Wen-je’s 28.6% support and Tsai Ing-wen’s 22.0% support. In this scenario, Han Guo-yu will win the 2020 presidency. If Ko Wen-je does not run, then Han Guo-yu with 52.5% support would easily defeat Tsai Ing-wen with 33.4% support. This scenario also renders null the Japanese conjecture.
A Kuomintang win in the 2020 presidential election will render null not only the Japanese commander’s conjecture but also the conjecture by his critics that China will apply economic pressure to force a quick unification.
Han Guo-yu’s 100% economy and doing business and zero % politics and Kuomintang chairman Wu Dun-yi’s proposal to sign a “peace agreement” with the Chinese mainland in combination will also render the Japanese conjectures mute.