China’s ambitions according to a former Japanese commander

China’s ambitions according to a former Japanese commander

According to a former commander of Japan’s Self Defense Forces, the Chinese Communist regime on the Chinese mainland plans to invade Taiwan by military force before 2025 and take Okinawa by military force in 2045.

The Chinese will implement a no fly zone over Taiwan and blockade Taiwan’s shipping lanes in and out of Taiwan’s seaports.

Contrary opinion says that China will exercise economic means to pressure the Taiwanese government and the Taiwanese people instead of actually launching a military invasion.

Wu Dun-yi, 吳敦義, chairman of the Kuomintang, is proposing to sign a “peace agreement” with the Chinese Communist regime, a proposal presented two years ago by former Kuomintang chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu 洪秀柱.

Any progress towards this end will delay the possibility of a planned military invasion of Taiwan before 2025 and a possible invasion of Okinawa in 2045.

The Japanese conjecture would be determined by the political events in 2019 and 2020 now that Tsai Ing-wen 蔡英文 has formerly announced her intention to run for reelection.  The Japanese conjecture would be possible if Tsai Ing-wen is reelected and serves till 2024 and her Democratic Progressive Party is likely to remain in government with a strong candidacy by Lai Ching-de 賴清德.

The Japanese conjecture would be rendered impossible if the Kuomintang wins the January 2020 presidential and legislative election and governs till 2024, and the Kuomintang president elected in January 2020 seeks reelection in 2024.

This scenario is very likely if the Kuomintang can decide on a viable candidate against Tsai Ing-wen in 2020.

According to the latest Apple Daily survey of 1,087 responses conducted on February 15-16, 2019, if Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 runs for president in 2020, he is expected to be the strongest candidate and the most likely to win against all possible candidates fielded by either the Kuomintang or the Democratic Progressive Party.

Eric Chu of the Kuomintang now loses in popularity rating to Ko Wen-je.  Now that Tsai Ing-wen has formerly announced her intention to run for reelection in 2020, Ko Wen-je will easily win since her popularity rating of 23.6% ranks third after Ko Wen-je’s 32.4% and Eric Chu’s 31.8%.  If Ko Wen-je does not run for president in 2020, Eric Chu of the Kuomintang is favored 50.2% to win against Tsai Ing-wen’s 33.6%.

The other still relatively unlikely scenario now popular is to draft newly elected Kaohsiung mayor Han Guo-yu 韓國瑜 as Kuomintang’s candidate for president in 2020.  Han became mayor of Kaohsiung on December 25, 2018.  Han Guo-yu is the only political figure with a popularity rating higher than that of Ko Wen-je 柯文哲 and is seen to be the only political figure popular enough to win in an election against Ko Wen-je.

According to Apple Daily News, if Han Guo-yu is drafted to run as Kuomintang’s candidate for president in 2020, Han will get 35.1% support against Ko Wen-je’s 28.6% support and Tsai Ing-wen’s 22.0% support.  In this scenario, Han Guo-yu will win the 2020 presidency.  If Ko Wen-je does not run, then Han Guo-yu with 52.5% support would easily defeat Tsai Ing-wen with 33.4% support. This scenario also renders null the Japanese conjecture.

A Kuomintang win in the 2020 presidential election will render null not only the Japanese commander’s conjecture but also the conjecture by his critics that China will apply economic pressure to force a quick unification.

Han Guo-yu’s 100% economy and doing business and zero % politics and Kuomintang chairman Wu Dun-yi’s proposal to sign a “peace agreement” with the Chinese mainland in combination will also render the Japanese conjectures mute.

 

 

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Taiwanese rock cod to Urumqi

Taiwanese rock cod to Urumqi

In May 2019, a contract will be signed between the cities of Kaohsiung and Urumqi to deliver Taiwanese Lung Dan rock cod to the city of Urumqi by air freight.  The distance between Kaohsiung and Urumqi is 4,000 kilometers, a flight time of about 9 hours.

Such a deal is discouraged by the despicable Tsai Ing-wen government of her Democratic Progressive Party, which are trying their best at obstructionism.

Another rather significant event in Taiwanese politics is the February 17, 2019, gathering of the 探子 “detective” (newly elected Kuomintang mayor of New Taipei City), the 燕子 “swallow” (newly elected Kuomintang mayor of Taichung), and the 秃子 “bald head” (the newly elected Kuomintang mayor of Kaohsiung) in Tainan to help legislative candidate 謝龍介 of the Kuomintang to sell Taiwan’s agricultural and fishery produce, an event that is making the Democratic Progressive Party shiver in fear.

 

 

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Taiwan’s foreign student population in 2019

Taiwan’s foreign student population in 2019

Taiwan has a total of 126,997 foreign students.  Of these, 61,970 are students pursuing undergraduate, Master’s and Ph.D. degrees.  The remaining are short term non-degree Chinese language students.

 

 

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Taiwan wants to become bilingual by 2030

Taiwan wants to become bilingual by 2030

Several years ago, Tainan city wanted to make itself a bilingual Mandarin and English city, but nothing has been done towards that goal.  After newly elected Kaohsiung mayor Han Guo-yu proposed making his city bilingual by promoting English as a mandatory second language,  the government of Taiwan proposed to make Taiwan a bilingual nation by 2030.  However, Taiwan does not have the English speaking colonial history that Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Philippines have had.

The goal of mayor Han Guo-yu 韓國瑜 of Kaohsiung and the government is to internationalize Kaohsiung and Taiwan to enhance Taiwan’s global competitiveness.

The new Kaohsiung mayor said on November 23, 2018, that the city of Kaohsiung will implement a two-year program to create a bilingual environment.  Teachers, policemen and firefighters, and city government workers must pass an English proficiency exam.  The program will begin at winter camp 2019.

In 2018, Taiwan’s large enterprises required their new recruits to score 582 on the TOEIC test.  In 2017, Taiwan’s university students scored an average of only 514.

Among Taiwan’s large enterprises, 98.5% require “internationalized talent”, 94.8% regard the ability to communicate in English as very important, 42.8% want their employees to have a second language capability.  Only 6.3% of Taiwanese companies do not require the use of English in their business pursuits.

Taiwanese companies rely on TOEIC program and the Educational Testing Service to judge the level of English competency of new recruits.  Their minimum score requirement is 582.  Mid level managers must score 684 on TOEIC, and high level managers must score 721 on TOEIC.  Manufacturers require new recruits to score 572 on TOEIC.  The services industry requires a score of 588 on TOEIC.  The financial industry requires a score of 619 on TOEIC.  Taiwanese university students score an average of 514 on TOEIC.

Taiwanese score 82/120 on the TOEFL exam.

[Master Chen says]

The goal of becoming a bilingual country by 2030 is a pipe dream with Taiwan’s current “English education”.

One proposal is to start teaching English in kindergarten.  This proposal misses the point.

Early exposure to a foreign language has been proven effective in Hong Kong when the Chinese authorities forced the Hong Kong educational authority to teach Mandarin in all kindergartens, essentially making Hong Kong’s spoken language of Cantonese an illegal dialect.  Attempts to telecast all television programs in Mandarin has met strong resistance from the Hong Kong public.

Observation of graduates from the various language departments of Taiwan’s universities shows that Taiwan’s foreign language teaching curriculum is a failure.

There are no listening comprehension labs where students can enhance their listening comprehension.  Languages are taught in classrooms through lectures.  There are no speech classes.  Reading comprehension is taught first.

More and more people are now self taught in one or several foreign languages.  Their methods of learning a foreign language should be adopted throughout and foreign language fluency and proficiency should be achieved with an intensive language training curriculum.

Emphasis should be on listening comprehension and speaking as first priority, and reading and writing abilities can be learned as intimate parts of listening comprehension.   Listening comprehension is easily learned by watching movies with subtitles and videotaped speeches with subtitles.

Both reading and writing abilities can be easily acquired through copying foreign text, listening comprehension and taking dictation.  Intensive exercise in taking dictation, writing down what one hears, is extremely important to achieve listening comprehension.

Another very important method in learning a foreign language is instantaneous interpretation and verbal translation training.

Proficiency in a foreign language is easily achievable through self taught online learning.  The essential exercises are: (1) Read text with online translation.  (2)  Copy text.  (3)  Watch movies with subtitles.  (4)  Take dictation.  (5)  Mimic movie dialogues.

This curriculum does not require teacher supervision for those who are self motivated.  For those less so, an intensive supervised classroom environment with audio-visual equipment and internet access should be sufficient.  Repetitive exercises such as listening and taking dictation should be supervised.

This supervised program is very suitable for Taiwan’s rural elementary and junior middle schools where few teachers are willing to teach, and where classes are small and schools have very few students.

The current methodology of language instruction and learning is inefficient, ineffective, a waste of time, and a waste of resources.

Efficient language instruction and learning is not in a classroom environment but in an audiovisual environment, or better, if resources permit, a VR (virtual reality), an AR (augmented reality) and an MR (mixed reality) environment would greatly enhance learning.  A virtual foreign environment such as a village in the targeted language speaking country can be created.  The student can “enter” this artificially created environment and “confront” situations where only the targeted language is spoken.  The student viewer is then compelled to “communicate”.

 

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Proud to be Taiwanese!

Proud to be Taiwanese!

January 24, 2019, is a day to congratulate Larisa Angela Bakurova, former Ukrainian national rhythmic gymnast and now model and actress based in Taiwan.

She received her Taiwanese identification card today, January 24, 2019, and is now listed as “Taiwanese” in official records.

She is proud to be Taiwanese, and president Tsai Ing-wen congratulated her on Facebook.

She is proud to be Taiwanese, and the Taiwanese welcome her to be their new Taiwanese citizen!

 

 

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AmCham 2019 outlook gloomy

AmCham 2019 outlook gloomy

The Business Climate Survey of the Taipei American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) indicates that 45.8% of multinational businesses in Taipei are confident about economic outlook for 2019, 87% worry about Taiwan’s power supply, 63% are concerned about how the Democratic Progressive Party government’s nuclear free goal will affect business expansion plans, 59% are dissatisfied with the level of attention of policymakers give to business.

The AmCham business climate surveys over the years have become less polite and more critical, especially since 2016 when Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party came into government on May 20, 2016.

AmCham foresaw a gloomy business climate and still foresees a gloomy business climate.

What the 2019 business climate survey indicates is a gloomy future for Taiwan’s business climate because of the erroneous policies of the Tsai Ing-wen government that are anti-business, anti-intellectualism, anti-professionalism, and anti-social progress and anti-social prosperity.

The Tsai Ing-wen government of her Democratic Progressive Party is practicing a closed door policy of political isolation by sacrificing the people’s will and the people’s wish to live a more prosperous life and a higher level of livelihood.  To achieve this, the government should be pro-business, not anti-business.

Beginning on October 25, 2018, governors and mayors of 15/22 counties and cities on Taiwan are now Kuomintang, and they are trying to promote exports of produce, fruits, vegetables, and fishery products in defiance of Tsai Ing-wen government’s political obstructionism.

This is why 45.8% of multinationals on Taiwan are confident about the economic outlook for 2019 while 87% worry about Taiwan’s business climate in future.

It is time to overthrow the government of Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party in 2020!

Hear ye, Hear ye, it is time to overthrow the government of Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party in 2020!

 

 

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Fregat Aero takes first tour group to Taiwan

Fregat Aero takes first tour group to Taiwan

The Vladivostok based international tour operator Fregat Aero took its first tour group of Russian tourists to Taiwan.

Apparently, this is the first Russian non-business tourist group to visit Taiwan since Taiwan began offering visa waiver status to Russian tourists.

 

 

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