How long will Taiwan last if attacked?

How long will Taiwan last if attacked?

There are two estimates as to how long Taiwan will last if attacked by China.  One estimate is 100 hours, and another more recent estimate is 48-72 hours.  Both estimates have been made by retired military generals in interviews by China’s Global Times.

Our two tellers of misfortune, Art and Sage, meet again to talk about this.

Art:  According to a previous interview, a retired general estimates that a military attack on Taiwan could be done within 100 hours.  According to a recent interview, another retired general estimates that a “bloodless attack” on Taiwan could be done in 48 to 72 hours.

Sage:  How would it be done?

Art:  According to the “bloodless attack” theory, China could use internet warfare, electronic warfare, electromagnetic pulse attacks to paralyze Taiwan’s command system and defeat Taiwan in 48 to 72 hours.

Sage:  At present, China seems to be building up its military forces as a “hard” backup while it conducts a frontline assault against Taiwan with its economic might, diplomatic might, cultural might, psychological warfare, legal warfare, and media warfare.  These are indeed “bloodless” assault tactics.  It is claimed that these are tactics to achieve a “peaceful unification”.

Art:  That is a misnomer.  It should be “bloodless unification”.

Sage:  Does all of this mean that a military attack on Taiwan may be unnecessary?

Art:  At the present moment, China has to secure its internal or domestic political stability first.  A military attack on Taiwan is very unlikely before that.

Sage:  I doubt that a “bloodless” electronic attack and an electromagnetic pulse attack on Taiwan could bring Taiwan to its knees in 48 to 72 hours or even in 100 hours.  For a blitzkrieg to succeed, military assault hardware must be deployed, including the use of missile bombardment and the possible use of nuclear weapons.

Art:  The second retired general interviewed by Global Times said that the “Chinese century” will continue for 100 years, and if China does not go to war, China will enjoy 200 to 300 years of prosperity.

Sage:  It would be unwise for China to launch any kind of war.