Three trends, four downs, and 2017 economic uncertainties

Three trends, four downs, and 2017 economic uncertainties

Head of Taiwan’s Hong Hai (Foxconn) Terry Guo held the company’s annual year-end bonus banquet in Taipei on January 22, 2017.  In attendance was Sharp Corporation CEO and president Tai Jeng Wu.  Terry Guo said on January 21, 2017, that there will be many economic uncertainties in the Year of the Golden Rooster of 2017.  He says:  “The rise of protectionism is unavoidable”.  “The trend of politics serving the economy is clear.”  “The proportional role of the actual economy will again become greater, and transformation of the manufacturing industries and manufacturing will again occupy key roles in economic growth.”  These are Terry Guo’s three predictions.

On January 22, 2017, Taiwan’s vice president Chen Chien-ren said that Taiwan is now a “society of four lows”.  He said that at the present time, “Taiwan’s birth rate is low”, “Taiwan’s economic growth rate is low”, “Taiwan’s bank deposit interest rates are low”, and “Taiwan’s rate of wage and salary growth is near zero.”  He also pointed out that Taiwan used to be a “society of four highs”.  “Taiwan’s birth rate was high”, “Taiwan’s wage and salary growth was high”, “Taiwan’s economic growth was high”, and “Taiwan’s bank deposit interest rates were high”.  But now, it is the opposite.

On January 22, 2017, Terry Guo said he had a phone conversation with Japan’s Softbank Group representative Masayoshi Son before Son goes to the United States to talk to President Donald Trump.  In the phone conversation, Masayoshi Son revealed that Softbank intends to invest in America and he asked Terry Guo if he would be interested in investing in America too.  Terry Guo is considering setting up a flat panel manufacturing plant in the United States, but it will depend on President Trump’s policies.  If Terry Guo were to build a flat panel manufacturing facility in the United States, it would have the potential of employing 30,000 to 50,000 workers.

Terry Guo and Masayoshi Son will be meeting in Beijing on January 24, 2017, for the opening of an ARM design center in Beijing.  ARM Holdings based in Cambridge is now a fully owned subsidiary of Softbank Group Corp.

At the Hong Hai annual year-end bonus banquet, Terry Guo displayed his lunar New Year’s couplets for the Year of the Golden Rooster.  “One more effort will bring one more harvest.  One more effort to unite will bring one more competition.  Be a little less selfish, let’s have a little less conflict, be a little less critical, and there will be a little less contention.”  The theme is:  “The Golden Rooster calls for the world to have peace”.

Another Taiwanese commentator who doesn’t know much about what he is talking about said that amongst all the predicted economic uncertainties in 2017, there will be more global mobility.

What this know-nothing Taiwanese commentator really wanted to say is that as protectionism rises in Europe and America, there will be more global fluidity.

Yeah!